Strength Analysis - Continued

RealPokerOdds™'s Strength Analysis feature has generated many questions, most along the lines of "What do I do with it?". Unfortunately, the best answer is "That depends...". Just kidding. The truth of the matter is that Poker is a game about information. You attempt to get as much information as possible by many different methods, including reading opponent's tells, understanding opponent tendancies, and knowing the odds. Based on the information you think you have for a particular hand, you make your play: fold, call, or raise. Strength Analysis is simply another piece of information for you to consider.

Unless you are bluffing, or have some alterior motive, you continue to play a hand because you believe you have the best hand or may draw a card that will give you the best hand. If you think you have the best hand, Strength Analysis gives you a pretty good indication of how much better your hand is than everyone elses. If you think you have a draw to the best hand, Strength Analysis gives you a pretty good indication of what draws absolutely help you, and what draws present just as many problems as they do positives.

Suppose you are playing Texas Hold'em, and you have pocket aces:

Now, suppose the flop comes:

That's about as good as it gets. About the only thing better would be two aces, but it's doubtful you would get any calls with two aces showing. But what if I told you that instead of the cards above, the flop came:

You have the exact same hand as before, a Set of Aces. But in this case, anyone with two spades has a better hand, and anyone with a single spade now has a flush draw. Clearly the first flop is better than the second. But how much better is the question. And Strength Analysis is the answer.

Let's look at another example. Draws are discussed in the Features section, so here we will give an example where you have the best hand. Suppose you are the dealer, you have the Ace and Ten of hearts, and you flop three hearts, so your hand looks like this:

 

That flop is about as good as it gets. You have the nut flush, as well as a Royal Flush draw. As the dealer, you bet last, and the only thing on your mind is not to let your face reveal your hand. Before we go any further, what do you think your chances of winning the pot are? Put your answer in ranges:

  • 90% to 100%
  • 80% to 90%
  • 70% to 80%
  • 60% to 70%
  • Less than 60%
Remember your answer for later.

Back to the game. Suppose the all the players before you check, except the person immediately to your right, who surprisingly goes All-In! (At this point, feel free to change your answer to the chance of winning question.)

Assuming the player who just went All-In is neither a fool or a fish, then there are only a few possibilities:

  1. The player is bluffing, trying to buy the pot, since everyone else checked.
  2. The player has a Flush, probably with a high heart, maybe even the Queen.
  3. The player has a Pocket Pair, such as pocket Kings, and has flopped a Set.
  4. The player has matched both his hole cards for Two Pair.
  5. The player has a high heart, and is attempting to buy the pot with an acceptable chance of pulling the flush should someone call.

Of those possibilities, only (3) and (4) concern you, since either hand could become a Full House with the right card on the turn or river. For instance, if you knew the turn and the river cards were going to be a King and a Jack, making the board:

you would almost certainly fold. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume the worst case, that the player has pocket Kings. With pocket Kings, any pair on the board gives the player Four of a Kind or a Full House, which beats your Flush.

So the question you are faced with is "What are the chances of any pair appearing on the board, including a matching turn and river card?" But there is an exception. If the Queen of Hearts is available, then a pair on the board doesn't hurt you if the other card is the Queen. So even if a player has pocket Kings, a board of

is still a winner. So the real question is "What are the chances of any pair appearing on the board, including a matching turn and river card, unless one of the cards is the Queen of Hearts?" And again, the answer is RealPokerOdds™.

Using RealPokerOdds™ with the cards in this example, and configuring RealPokerOdds™'s AI to consider a possible opponent Full House whenver a pair appears on the board, the player's hand is Strong ONLY 62% of the time. However, this percentage is derived from assuming there are 3 Kings, 3 Jacks, and 3 Fours still in the deck. Since we think the other player has at least two pair, we need to use RealPokerOdds™'s Burn feature to remove two of those cards. Since we only care about a pair appearing on the board, it doesn't matter whether we remove two Kings, a King and a Jack, or two Fours. Since two Kings is the worst case, let's burn the King of Clubs and King of Diamonds. Once we do this, the Strong percentage raises to 67.2%, meaning there is a 32.8% chance of at least one pair appearing on the board.

Again, we must stress that this is a worse case scenario. But that is the point. Even in this worse case scenario, we have proven that calling the All-In is proper move, from a pot-odds perspective. Oh, and by the way, what was your answer to the question?

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