Pot Odds

This page is extracted from RealPokerOdds™'s Help Library. Since most of RealPokerOdds™'s features are designed to help determine Pot Odds, it is included for those who are new to the concept.

As a round of poker progresses, a player gains more information about their own hand, as well as the possible opponent hands. Deciding whether to continue playing or fold the hand is dependant upon a variety of factors, one of which is Pot Odds. In a one sentence, Pot Odds is a comparison of the probable chance of winning the hand verses the relative cost to continue playing the hand.

Unfortunately, determining pot odds at a table requires a bit of math. The steps to determining pot odds are as follows:

  1. Determine the number of Outs; i.e. the number of cards that you think will result in victory
  2. Create a ratio with the number of cards that do not help you against the number of Outs
  3. Separately, create a ratio of the pot size against the amount to call the pot
  4. Compare the two ratios. If the ratio of bad cards to outs is better, than you have good pot odds, and it is reasonable to continue playing

Let's illustrate this process with a few examples, using Texas Hold'em.

Example 1:

Player's Hand:
Board:
Pot: $1000
To Call: $100

In this example, the player has a straight draw, as well as two cards better than any card on the board. If the player thinks a straight is required to win, then there are 4 outs, since there are presumably 4 tens in the deck. With 6 cards showing, that leaves a total of 46 cards left. This gives the player a ratio of 42:4 (10.5:1), or 8.7%. Meanwhile, the ratio of the pot amount to the call amount is 1000:100 (10:1), or 9.1%. In this case, the pot odds are not good, and the player should consider folding.

However, if the player thinks a straight or matching either the ace or the king is good enough to win, then there are 10 outs (3 Aces, 3 Kings, 4 Tens), giving a ratio of 36:10 (3.6:1), or 21.7%. In this case, the pots odds are very good, and the player would be making a valid investment to call.

Example 2:

Player's Hand:
Board:
Pot: $1000
To Call: $100

In this example, the player has a flush draw. There are 13 cards for each suit, and since 4 hearts are visible, that leaves 9 left in the deck. However, if the player is a pessimist, it would not be unreasonable to discount the Five of hearts, since that would give anyone who has a Seven or a Five a Full House. Being pessimistic, there are 8 outs with 46 cards in the deck, giving a ratio of 38:8 (4.75:1), or 17.4%. With the same call ratio as the previous example, even being pessimistic, the pot odds still favor making the call.

Example 3:

Player's Hand:
Board:
Pot: $1000
To Call: $500
Again, the player has a flush draw. However, in this case, the player has 2 chances of getting one card. Figuring out the odds here requires quite a bit of math. Most players don't bother with the math, instead choosing to memorize the percentages for common outcomes. These percentages are listed in the help chapter, and call also be obtained by using the Outs Calculator. In this example, the player has 9 outs with 2 cards to go, giving a ratio of roughly 1.8:1 (35%). The bet ratio is 1000:500, or 2:1. In this case, pot odds slightly favor a call.

Summary

When considering Pot Odds, it is helpful to think of the calling bets as an investment. For instance, in the third example, if that scenario occurred 14 times, statistically the player would win 5 of them. The five wins would result in winning $5,000, while the nine losses would be a net loss of $4,500.

Of course, there are days when the cards never come, and other days when it seems you can't make a mistake, no matter how hard you try. Poker is, after all, a game of chance. But, used correctly, over the long haul using pot odds should result in a nice profit.

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I've read three or four books on Pot Odds. But until I saw the numbers first hand, I never really understood it.

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